Landsvirkjun studies the impacts of climate change on electricity production
Since 2002 Landsvirkjun has participated in joint Nordic research projects on climate change impacts on river flow.
The research findings indicate that increasing climate temperatures cause the flow in glacial rivers to increase significantly. Landsvirkjun‘s hydro reserves are mostly tied up in glaciers that consequently are likely to melt sooner than previously expected.
Thus knowledge about increased river flow is of importance for the operation of Landsvirkjun‘s power plants.
Based on current predictions of rising temperatures the runoff from glaciers will increase significantly in the future, beyond the already observed increase. Due to global warming Iceland‘s glaciers are likely todisappear over the coming 200 years or so.
The river runoff models and the corresponding river flow series Landsvirkjun applies in making plans for the current electrical power system have been undergoing revisions. River flow series reveal the local river flow conditions since 1950. The flow series are applied in assessing the energy capacity of Landsvirkjun‘s current power system and in evaluating the energy production capacity and installed power of the power plant projects under preparation.
By the end of 2006 a decision was made to only apply the last 20 years of river flow series in determining the energy production capacity of Landsvirkjun‘s electrical power system. The move increased the production capacity by 765 GWh per year. It took into account the warming climate and the unlikelihood of a repetition of the coldest and driest years in Landsvirkjun‘s river flow series.
By the end of 2009 a decision was made to go all the way and apply precipitation and temperature adjusted river flow series that take into account climate changes that have already taken placeand predictions of future changes. This increased the annual production capacity for 2010 by 285 GWh. Thus the production capacity increases by 1.050 GWh per year, obtainable through the improved utilisation of Landsvirkjun‘s existing power plants. In comparison, Landsvirkjun‘s total output in 2009 amounted to 12.154 GWh.
The applied temperature adjustments are conservatively assessed and are slightly lower than predicted. Adjusted river flow series have been prepared for the years 2010, 2015, 2025, 2035 and 2050.
If these river flow predictions come true, Landsvirkjun‘s power plants will only be able to partially utilise the river flow increase as they do not possess sufficient power capabilities. Landsvirkjun is currently studying in what way it can respond to these changes by optimizing its production and increasing installed power at existing power plant locations.